1 in 44 didn't survive the crossing
Welcome to Mapped: one dataset turned into one map, every week. This week: the three sea routes into Europe across the Mediterranean, and how often a crossing ends in death.
Between 2016 and 2024, about 790,000 people set out from Libya and Tunisia for Italy and Malta and were not turned back by a coast guard. 18,184 of them died or went missing. That is 1 in 44.
From Morocco and Algeria to Spain it was 1 in 48. From Turkey to the Greek islands, 1 in 249.
Remix this map → Opens this map in the editor with the same data, so you can check it or adapt it.
The odds
Count only the people who weren’t intercepted: everyone who either reached Europe or died trying. Then ask how many of them died.
| Route | Of those not turned back, died or went missing (2016–2024) | 2025* |
|---|---|---|
| Central: Libya, Tunisia → Italy, Malta | 2.3%, 1 in 44 | 1 in 51 |
| Western: Morocco, Algeria → Spain | 2.1%, 1 in 48 | 1 in 38 |
| Eastern: Turkey → Greek islands | 0.4%, 1 in 249 | 1 in 113 |
*2025 uses UNHCR arrivals. Greece’s 2025 arrivals include the Libya → Crete corridor, whose deaths IOM counts as Central, so the 2025 Eastern figure is understated and the Central one overstated.
The Western route gets far less attention than the Central one. It carries a fraction of the traffic but has nearly the same odds, and every year since 2022 it has been the deadlier crossing: 1 in 23 in 2022, 1 in 38 in 2025.
The Eastern route is safer per crossing because most of it is a few kilometres of water between the Turkish coast and Lesbos, Chios or Kos. In 2015, 857,000 people crossed it and about 1 in 1,000 died.
The toll
Every white dot on the map is one wreck with at least 30 people dead or missing. There are 269 of them since January 2014. The gold lines are the main routes, drawn thicker where more people died on them.
| Route | Dead or missing, 2014–2025 |
|---|---|
| Central | 25,859 |
| Western | 4,758 |
| Eastern | 3,020 |
| Total | 33,637 |
Most of the wrecks sit off western Libya, the Central route’s departure coast: Zuwara, Sabratha, Tripoli. The largest dots mark the deadliest single wrecks:
- South of Lampedusa, 18 April 2015: 1,022. A fishing boat capsized about 110 km off Libya. It is the deadliest Mediterranean wreck in IOM’s records.
- Pylos, Greece, 14 June 2023: 646. A fishing boat from Tobruk, bound for Italy, sank off the Peloponnese with an estimated 750 people on board. 104 survived. The dashed line on the map is its route: it never reached Italy.
- Off Zuwara, Libya, 26 May 2016: 550.
- Off Sallum, Egypt, 9 April 2016: 459.
The solid line from eastern Libya to Crete is the newest corridor. Frontex counted crossings on it more than tripling in 2025.
In 2025, 2,185 people died or went missing in the Mediterranean. By 23 September 2026, IOM had already recorded 1,971 more.
The interceptions
Arriving and dying aren’t the only outcomes. On the Central route, 29% of all attempts between 2016 and 2024 ended in an interception by the Libyan or Tunisian authorities: 316,000 in all. In 2024 it was 38%. Tunisia’s figures may include people stopped before they launched. On the Eastern route the Turkish coast guard intercepted 45%, about 348,000.
Interception is not the same as safety. People returned to Libya are taken to detention centres that UN investigators have documented for abuse, and many try again. The same person can be intercepted more than once, which is why the odds above count only those who weren’t stopped. Morocco and Algeria publish no comparable figures for the Western route, so its share is unknown.
The takeaway
This past Saturday was 13 years since a boat sank off Lampedusa on 3 October 2013 and 368 people died. Italy now marks the date as a day of remembrance. That wreck was counted because it sank within sight of the island.
These are the deaths someone saw. A boat that sinks at night with no survivors and no distress call leaves nothing to count. In 2025 alone, IOM says, at least 1,500 more people were reported missing at sea but couldn’t be verified, and 270 bodies washed ashore on Mediterranean coasts without being linked to any known wreck.
So 1 in 44 is the low end. Every number on this map is a floor.
Make this map yourself
The whole map is one maproll URL: 269 markers, 10 routes and a crop to the Mediterranean.
https://api.maproll.io/map.svg?scope=world&bbox=-7,30,36,42
&markers=33.05,12.06:dot:Off Zuwara, 2016 · 550:bottom:35;...
&routes=32.93,12.08>36.73,14.84:#E0A84F:9:arrow:sea;...
&data=LY:#43382A,TN:#43382A,...,IT:#2B3456,GR:#2B3456,...
&theme=dark&legend=false
bbox crops the world to the sea. Each wreck is a dot marker whose size is 1.5 × the square root of its death toll, so a dot’s area tracks the count. The :sea flag routes each line around the coasts instead of across them, and data paints departure countries ochre and arrival countries navy without a legend. Remix this map → or start from scratch.
Sources: deaths and the location of each wreck: IOM Missing Migrants Project, incident data via HDX (updated 29 September 2026; dead plus missing; rows from the same date and place merged into one wreck). Arrivals, interceptions and deaths per route, 2016–2024: IOM’s attempted Mediterranean crossings data. Its 2019 Libya figure contains negative months, so it was replaced with IOM Libya’s published 9,225. 2025 arrivals: UNHCR Europe Sea Arrivals. 2025 totals and unverified reports: IOM, 21 migrants died every day in 2025. Libya → Crete growth: Frontex. Routes follow IOM’s definitions, so deaths on the Libya → Crete corridor, including Pylos, count as Central Mediterranean. The Eastern odds use Greek sea arrivals only, because Cyprus arrivals are mostly land crossings over the Green Line. Interception counts are events, not people. Next week on Mapped: subscribe below to get it first.